Sun Tzu on testing small
When Big Bets Go Wrong
Years ago at my home health agency, I made a big bet. I spent more than $250,000 on a Honeywell® telehealth system. I was convinced it would change the way we delivered care and drive a lot of new growth. I’d heard stories about agencies in Florida that grew fast with similar systems. I thought I was setting us up for the next stage.
What I didn’t see was that the salespeople were great. The implementation team wasn’t. After we spent the money, we were left trying to make the thing work. We used it for a handful of patients. The return came nowhere close to justifying the cost.
If I had it to do again, I’d have tested the concept first with a cobbled-together version for $10,000. I’d have learned the same thing about implementation without writing the big check. Instead, I spent $250,000 to learn the value of starting small.
This morning, reading The Art of War, I came across a passage that put words to that lesson:
“Take advantage of spots where he is unprepared, make repeated sorties…. Now if you reject this victorious strategy and decide instead to risk all on one battle, it will be too late for regrets.”
For a small business, success rarely comes from betting everything on one idea. It comes from testing, adapting, and looking for the openings other people aren’t looking at.
Why Small Tests Lead to Big Wins
Sun Tzu’s “repeated sorties” is the case for small-scale experimentation. Testing in manageable pieces lets you minimize risk, gather information, and adapt quickly when something doesn’t work.
Take a small-town bakery. Instead of overhauling the whole menu to focus on gluten-free and vegan options, the owner could add a few of each to the existing lineup. Then watch what sells. The customers vote with their dollars, which is more useful than what they say in conversation.
(A side note on that: people often tell you what they think you want to hear. Not because they want to lie. Because they want to support you. The cleanest read on what your customers actually want comes from what they buy, not what they say. There’s a whole book on this called The Mom Test by Rob Fitzpatrick. Worth reading.)
Finding the Openings
“Take advantage of spots where he is unprepared” is about finding the gaps your competitors haven’t filled. Areas they can’t, won’t, or don’t.
Back to the bakery: if no one in town serves allergy-sensitive customers, the small bakery has an opening that nobody bigger is going to chase. That’s where the loyal customer base lives. Competing there doesn’t require competing on price or scale.
Iterate Your Way to Success
“Make repeated sorties” is about staying agile. Most successful small businesses I’ve watched grew by testing, learning, and adjusting, not by committing to one big idea up front.
A seasonal item is a good test vehicle. The bakery runs peppermint bark scones for a few weeks in December. If they sell out, the recipe earns its place on the menu. If they don’t, no real damage done.
Diversify the Effort
Betting everything on one idea is risky. Spreading your effort across multiple small experiments gives you more chances to learn and more ways to recover when one doesn’t work.
The bakery could try a few customer-acquisition strategies at the same time. Social media ads targeting local families. A partnership with a coffee shop nearby. An in-store offer for first-time buyers. You see which one moves the needle and put the budget there.
What Happens When You Bet It All
Ignoring this advice can cost you. I’ve seen owners pour everything into a new product line without testing demand. They buy the equipment, hire the people, build the marketing. Months later, sales are a fraction of the projection. The costs are mounting. The path back is unclear.
If you start small first — a few sample wedding cakes at local events, a limited-time offer — you learn what the demand actually is before you commit.
Practical Ways to Apply This
A few things you can do this week:
Find one place to test an idea without overcommitting. A limited batch of a new product, a small ad, a single conversation with a customer. Pick the smallest version that will tell you something.
Look for the gap your competitors aren’t filling. Nut-free cookies. Late-evening hours. A specific kind of customer nobody else is serving well.
Run two or three small experiments at once and compare. You learn faster, and you make better decisions about where to put the next dollar.
After each test, evaluate. What worked. What didn’t. What you’d do differently. Then act on what you learned.
Small Steps, Big Wins
Sun Tzu’s lesson is clear. Betting everything on one idea is dangerous. Success in a small business comes from testing, learning, and finding the openings others aren’t watching.
Take a few minutes this week and think about where you might be betting too much, or where you’ve held back because the risk felt too big. Pick one small step you can take to test, fill a gap, or look at something new.
The path to sustainable growth isn’t paved with big bets. It’s built on small, smart moves that compound over time.
About the Author
Ron Tester is a physical therapist with thirty years in the field. He built, grew, and operated a multidisciplinary home health company employing PTs, OTs, and SLPs through a successful exit. He now coaches outpatient PT, OT, and SLP clinic owners on operating at the owner level. Certified Executive Coach and Book Yourself® Solid Coach. Learn more at https://rontestercoaching.com/about.